baseline: 批次A-D 成果 + membership 半成品（测试红）
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"""AI 应收风险预警（纯统计引擎，不依赖 LLM）。
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对标结论：竞品 AI 全在开单/问答，没人做应收风险——这是差异化卖点。
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本模块只做统计评分（可离线、可测试、无 KEY 也能跑），LLM 仅作为话术增强（见 `advice.py`）。
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三因子加权 → 0-100 风险分：
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1. 回款周期漂移（权重 40）：客户近期实际回款天数 vs 历史均值，变慢得高分
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2. 欠款趋势（权重 35）：未结余额环比上升幅度
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3. 开单频次骤降（权重 25）：欠款在账但近期不再开单（可能已流失/绕单）
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评分分档：high ≥70 / medium 40-69 / low <40
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from datetime import date, timedelta
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from decimal import Decimal
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from typing import Optional
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from django.db.models import Sum
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# 因子权重（和为 1.0）
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WEIGHT_CYCLE_DRIFT = Decimal("0.40")
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WEIGHT_OUTSTANDING_TREND = Decimal("0.35")
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WEIGHT_ORDER_DROP = Decimal("0.25")
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# 分档阈值
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THRESHOLD_HIGH = Decimal("70")
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THRESHOLD_MEDIUM = Decimal("40")
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RECENT_WINDOW_DAYS = 90
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BASELINE_WINDOW_DAYS = 365
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def _d(value) -> Decimal:
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return Decimal(str(value or 0))
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def _payback_days_by_receivable(tenant, customer, *, since: Optional[date] = None) -> list:
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"""返回该客户每张已核销应收的"从开单到收齐"天数列表。
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用 Allocation（收款核销）里最晚一笔核销日期 - 应收单开单日期近似回款周期；
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未结清的应收不参与（它们没有回款周期，但会进"欠款趋势"因子）。
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"""
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from apps.finance.models import Allocation
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qs = Allocation.objects.filter(
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tenant=tenant,
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kind="receipt",
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receivable__customer=customer,
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receivable__isnull=False,
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is_deleted=False,
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).select_related("receipt", "receivable")
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if since is not None:
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qs = qs.filter(receivable__bill_date__gte=since)
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latest = {}
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for a in qs:
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rid = a.receivable_id
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rd = a.receipt.bill_date if a.receipt and a.receipt.bill_date else None
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if rd is None:
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continue
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if rid not in latest or rd > latest[rid][1]:
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latest[rid] = (a.receivable.bill_date, rd)
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days = []
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for bill_date, receipt_date in latest.values():
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delta = (receipt_date - bill_date).days
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if delta >= 0:
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days.append(delta)
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return days
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def cycle_drift_score(tenant, customer, *, today: Optional[date] = None) -> dict:
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"""回款周期漂移因子：近期平均回款天数 vs 历史基线。"""
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today = today or date.today()
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recent_start = today - timedelta(days=RECENT_WINDOW_DAYS)
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baseline_start = today - timedelta(days=BASELINE_WINDOW_DAYS)
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recent = _payback_days_by_receivable(tenant, customer, since=recent_start)
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baseline_all = _payback_days_by_receivable(tenant, customer, since=baseline_start)
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# 基线排除近期，避免自己比自己
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baseline = [d for d in baseline_all if d not in recent] or baseline_all
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if not recent or not baseline:
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return {"score": Decimal("0"), "recent_days": None, "baseline_days": None,
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"reason": "样本不足，回款周期因子不计分"}
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recent_avg = Decimal(sum(recent)) / Decimal(len(recent))
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base_avg = Decimal(sum(baseline)) / Decimal(len(baseline))
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if base_avg <= 0:
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return {"score": Decimal("0"), "recent_days": recent_avg,
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"baseline_days": base_avg, "reason": "基线为 0，不计分"}
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ratio = recent_avg / base_avg
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# ratio ≤1 → 0 分；1.0→1.5 线性到 100 分；≥1.5 → 100
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if ratio <= 1:
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score = Decimal("0")
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else:
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score = min(Decimal("100"), (ratio - 1) / Decimal("0.5") * Decimal("100"))
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return {
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"score": score.quantize(Decimal("0.01")),
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"recent_days": float(recent_avg),
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"baseline_days": float(base_avg),
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"reason": (f"近 {RECENT_WINDOW_DAYS} 天平均回款 {recent_avg:.0f} 天，"
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f"历史均值 {base_avg:.0f} 天，"
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f"{'变慢' if ratio > 1 else '未变慢'} {abs(ratio - 1) * 100:.0f}%"),
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}
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def outstanding_trend_score(tenant, customer, *, today: Optional[date] = None) -> dict:
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"""欠款趋势因子：本月未结 vs 上月同口径，上升得高分。"""
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from apps.finance.models import Receivable
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today = today or date.today()
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this_month_start = today.replace(day=1)
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last_month_end = this_month_start - timedelta(days=1)
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last_month_start = last_month_end.replace(day=1)
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def _outstanding(as_of: date) -> Decimal:
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agg = Receivable.objects.filter(
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tenant=tenant, customer=customer,
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status__in=["open", "partial"], is_deleted=False,
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bill_date__lte=as_of,
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).aggregate(amount=Sum("total_amount"), paid=Sum("paid_amount"))
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return _d(agg["amount"]) - _d(agg["paid"])
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now_val = _outstanding(today)
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prev_val = _outstanding(last_month_end)
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if prev_val <= 0:
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# 上期无欠款、本期有 → 新增欠款，按金额档给分（不直接满分）
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if now_val > 0:
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return {"score": Decimal("50"), "current": float(now_val),
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"previous": 0.0, "reason": f"上月无欠款，本月新增未结 ¥{now_val:.2f}"}
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return {"score": Decimal("0"), "current": 0.0, "previous": 0.0,
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"reason": "两期均无欠款"}
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growth = (now_val - prev_val) / prev_val
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if growth <= 0:
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score = Decimal("0")
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else:
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# 增长 0→50% 线性到 100 分
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score = min(Decimal("100"), growth / Decimal("0.5") * Decimal("100"))
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return {
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"score": score.quantize(Decimal("0.01")),
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"current": float(now_val),
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"previous": float(prev_val),
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"reason": (f"未结余额 ¥{prev_val:.2f} → ¥{now_val:.2f}，"
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f"{'上升' if growth > 0 else '下降'} {abs(growth) * 100:.0f}%"),
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}
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def order_drop_score(tenant, customer, *, today: Optional[date] = None) -> dict:
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"""开单频次骤降因子：欠款在账但连续 N 天无新单。"""
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from apps.sales.models import SalesBill
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today = today or date.today()
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last_bill = SalesBill.objects.filter(
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tenant=tenant, customer=customer, is_deleted=False,
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).exclude(state="cancelled").order_by("-bill_date").first()
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from apps.partner.services import credit_usage
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usage = credit_usage(tenant=tenant, customer=customer)
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outstanding = _d(usage["outstanding"])
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if outstanding <= 0:
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return {"score": Decimal("0"), "days_since_last_bill": None,
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"reason": "无欠款，频次因子不适用"}
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if last_bill is None:
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return {"score": Decimal("80"), "days_since_last_bill": None,
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"reason": "有欠款但从未开单（历史导入或异常）"}
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gap = (today - last_bill.bill_date).days
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if gap <= 30:
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score = Decimal("0")
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elif gap >= 90:
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score = Decimal("100")
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else:
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score = (Decimal(gap - 30) / Decimal("60") * Decimal("100"))
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return {
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"score": score.quantize(Decimal("0.01")),
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"days_since_last_bill": gap,
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"last_bill_no": last_bill.bill_no,
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"reason": (f"已 {gap} 天未开新单，但仍有 ¥{outstanding:.2f} 欠款在账"
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if gap > 30 else f"最近 {gap} 天内有开单，频次正常"),
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}
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def score_customer(tenant, customer, *, today: Optional[date] = None) -> dict:
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"""单客户风险评分：三因子加权 → 0-100 + 分档 + 理由。"""
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cycle = cycle_drift_score(tenant, customer, today=today)
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trend = outstanding_trend_score(tenant, customer, today=today)
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drop = order_drop_score(tenant, customer, today=today)
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total = (
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_d(cycle["score"]) * WEIGHT_CYCLE_DRIFT
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+ _d(trend["score"]) * WEIGHT_OUTSTANDING_TREND
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+ _d(drop["score"]) * WEIGHT_ORDER_DROP
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).quantize(Decimal("0.01"))
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if total >= THRESHOLD_HIGH:
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level = "high"
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elif total >= THRESHOLD_MEDIUM:
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level = "medium"
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else:
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level = "low"
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from apps.partner.services import credit_usage
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usage = credit_usage(tenant=tenant, customer=customer)
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return {
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"customer_id": customer.id,
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"customer_code": customer.code,
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"customer_name": customer.name,
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"score": float(total),
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"level": level,
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"outstanding": float(_d(usage["outstanding"])),
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"limit": float(_d(usage["limit"])),
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"factors": {
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"cycle_drift": {**cycle, "score": float(cycle["score"]),
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"weight": float(WEIGHT_CYCLE_DRIFT)},
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"outstanding_trend": {**trend, "score": float(trend["score"]),
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"weight": float(WEIGHT_OUTSTANDING_TREND)},
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"order_drop": {**drop, "score": float(drop["score"]),
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"weight": float(WEIGHT_ORDER_DROP)},
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},
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}
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def risk_ranking(tenant, *, top_n: int = 5, min_outstanding: Decimal = Decimal("0"),
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today: Optional[date] = None) -> list:
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"""全租户客户风险排行（默认只看有欠款的客户），按分数降序取前 N。"""
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from apps.finance.models import Receivable
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from apps.partner.models import Customer
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from django.db.models import Q
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customer_ids = list(
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Receivable.objects.filter(
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tenant=tenant, status__in=["open", "partial"], is_deleted=False,
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).values_list("customer_id", flat=True).distinct()
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)
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if not customer_ids:
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return []
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qs = Customer.objects.filter(tenant=tenant, id__in=customer_ids, is_deleted=False)
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if min_outstanding > 0:
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qs = qs.filter(Q(credit_limit__gt=0) | Q(id__in=customer_ids))
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results = [score_customer(tenant, c, today=today) for c in qs]
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results = [r for r in results if _d(r["outstanding"]) > min_outstanding]
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results.sort(key=lambda r: r["score"], reverse=True)
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return results[:top_n]
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