diff --git a/tools/probe_models.py b/tools/probe_models.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c5b34c7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/probe_models.py
@@ -0,0 +1,409 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""I-01 模型能力自动探测：每晚自动 + 异常告警方向，最小闭环。
+
+读 ~/.dsh/settings.yaml 枚举全部分组与模型，对每个模型跑三组探测：
+- 基线：一次最小对话请求（200 + 非空回复）
+- 思考：按模型的 thinkingFormat/reasoningEfforts 配置发带推理参数请求，验证 reasoning 字段
+- 视觉：内置 64px 纯色 PNG（base64 内嵌）问主色
+
+铁律：脚本只读 settings.yaml（open(mode='r')，代码层面无写入路径）；
+任何写入需求只进报告建议，由人执行。报告不打印 API key。
+
+产出：tools/probe-reports/probe-YYYY-MM-DD.json（机读）+ 同名 .md（人读：表格 + 与上次 diff）。
+
+用法：
+    python tools/probe_models.py --all                 # 全量探测 + 写报告
+    python tools/probe_models.py --all --compare       # 全量探测 + 写报告 + 打印与上次对比
+    python tools/probe_models.py --provider b         # 只跑一组
+    python tools/probe_models.py --check-readonly     # 自证：grep 本源码无 settings 写入路径
+
+Windows 计划任务（每晚 02:00）示例：
+    schtasks /create /tn "DSH模型探测" /tr "python C:\\Users\\12914\\Desktop\\dsh\\tools\\probe_models.py --all" /sc daily /st 02:00
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import base64
+import datetime as _dt
+import io
+import json
+import os
+import struct
+import sys
+import time
+import urllib.request
+import zlib
+from pathlib import Path
+
+HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
+REPORT_DIR = HERE / "probe-reports"
+SETTINGS = Path(os.path.expanduser("~/.dsh/settings.yaml"))
+
+TIMEOUT = 30  # 单请求超时（秒），失败隔离：单模型失败不中断全量
+RED_PNG_B64: str | None = None
+
+
+def red_png_b64() -> str:
+    """64px 纯红 PNG，纯标准库生成（zlib+struct），无外部文件依赖。"""
+    global RED_PNG_B64
+    if RED_PNG_B64 is None:
+        w = h = 64
+        raw = b"".join(b"\x00" + b"\xff\x00\x00" * w for _ in range(h))
+
+        def chunk(typ: bytes, data: bytes) -> bytes:
+            c = typ + data
+            return struct.pack(">I", len(data)) + c + struct.pack(">I", zlib.crc32(c) & 0xFFFFFFFF)
+
+        png = (b"\x89PNG\r\n\x1a\n"
+               + chunk(b"IHDR", struct.pack(">IIBBBBB", w, h, 8, 2, 0, 0, 0))
+               + chunk(b"IDAT", zlib.compress(raw))
+               + chunk(b"IEND", b""))
+        RED_PNG_B64 = base64.b64encode(png).decode()
+    return RED_PNG_B64
+
+
+def load_settings() -> dict:
+    """只读加载 settings.yaml（本函数是全脚本唯一的 settings 打开点，mode='r'）。"""
+    try:
+        import yaml  # type: ignore
+        with open(SETTINGS, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+            return yaml.safe_load(fh) or {}
+    except ImportError:
+        pass
+    # 无 PyYAML 时的最小缩进解析：只取 providers 下 api/apiKeyEnv/baseURL/models 必要字段
+    import re
+    text = None
+    with open(SETTINGS, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+        text = fh.read()
+    providers: dict = {}
+    cur_p = cur_m = None
+    cur: dict = {}
+    for line in text.splitlines():
+        m = re.match(r"^    ([a-z0-9-]+):\s*$", line)
+        if m:
+            if cur_p and cur:
+                providers[cur_p] = cur
+            cur_p, cur, cur_m = m.group(1), {"models": []}, None
+            continue
+        if cur_p is None:
+            continue
+        m2 = re.match(r"^      (displayName|apiKeyEnv|api|baseURL):\s*(.+?)\s*$", line)
+        if m2:
+            cur[m2.group(1)] = m2.group(2)
+            continue
+        m3 = re.match(r"^        - id:\s*(\S+)", line)
+        if m3:
+            cur_m = {"id": m3.group(1), "input": ["text"], "compat": {}, "reasoningEfforts": None}
+            cur["models"].append(cur_m)
+            continue
+        if cur_m is not None:
+            m4 = re.match(r"^            (thinkingFormat|supportsDeveloperRole):\s*(\S+)", line)
+            if m4:
+                cur_m["compat"][m4.group(1)] = m4.group(2)
+                continue
+            m5 = re.match(r"^          input:\s*\[(.+)\]", line)
+            if m5:
+                cur_m["input"] = [x.strip() for x in m5.group(1).split(",")]
+                continue
+            if re.match(r"^          reasoningEfforts:\s*$", line):
+                cur_m["reasoningEfforts"] = {}
+                continue
+            m6 = re.match(r"^            (off|low|medium|high):\s*(\S+)?", line)
+            if m6 and isinstance(cur_m.get("reasoningEfforts"), dict):
+                cur_m["reasoningEfforts"][m6.group(1)] = (m6.group(2) or "").lower() == "null" and None or m6.group(2)
+    if cur_p and cur:
+        providers[cur_p] = cur
+    return {"llm-pi-ai": {"providers": providers}}
+
+
+def iter_models(cfg: dict):
+    provs = ((cfg.get("llm-pi-ai") or {}).get("providers") or {})
+    for pname, p in provs.items():
+        for m in p.get("models") or []:
+            yield pname, p, m
+
+
+def _post(url: str, key: str, payload: dict, timeout: int = TIMEOUT) -> tuple[int, dict, str]:
+    body = json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=False).encode()
+    req = urllib.request.Request(
+        url, data=body,
+        headers={"Content-Type": "application/json", "Authorization": f"Bearer {key}"},
+        method="POST",
+    )
+    t0 = time.time()
+    try:
+        with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=timeout) as resp:
+            raw = resp.read().decode("utf-8", "replace")
+            return resp.status, json.loads(raw), f"{(time.time() - t0) * 1000:.0f}ms"
+    except Exception as exc:
+        ms = f"{(time.time() - t0) * 1000:.0f}ms"
+        code = getattr(exc, "code", "")
+        return -1, {"_error": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {str(exc)[:200]}", "_code": code}, ms
+
+
+def probe_baseline(base: str, key: str, model: str, api: str):
+    if api == "openai-responses":
+        payload = {"model": model, "input": "只回复：OK"}
+        st, data, ms = _post(base.rstrip("/") + "/responses", key, payload)
+        text = ""
+        try:
+            out = data.get("output") or []
+            for item in out:
+                for c in item.get("content") or []:
+                    text += c.get("text", "")
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        ok = st == 200 and bool(text.strip())
+        return {"pass": ok, "ms": ms, "status": st,
+                "err": "" if ok else str(data.get("_error", data))[:200]}
+    payload = {"model": model, "messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "只回复：OK"}],
+               "max_tokens": 16}
+    st, data, ms = _post(base.rstrip("/") + "/chat/completions", key, payload)
+    text = ""
+    try:
+        text = (data.get("choices") or [{}])[0].get("message", {}).get("content", "")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+    ok = st == 200 and bool((text or "").strip())
+    return {"pass": ok, "ms": ms, "status": st,
+            "err": "" if ok else str(data.get("_error", data))[:200]}
+
+
+def probe_thinking(base: str, key: str, model: str, api: str, compat: dict, efforts: dict | None):
+    """按 thinkingFormat 发推理参数；验证 reasoning 字段返回。无声明 → skip。"""
+    fmt = (compat or {}).get("thinkingFormat")
+    if not fmt or not efforts:
+        return {"pass": None, "ms": "-", "status": "-", "err": "skip: 无 thinking 声明"}
+    hi = (efforts or {}).get("high")
+    extra: dict = {}
+    if fmt == "zai":
+        extra = {"enable_thinking": True, **({"reasoning_effort": hi} if hi else {})}
+    elif fmt == "qwen":
+        extra = {"enable_thinking": True, **({"reasoning_effort": hi or "xhigh"} if True else {})}
+    else:
+        extra = {"enable_thinking": True}
+    if api == "openai-responses":
+        payload = {"model": model, "input": "5-2=3，还剩3；2*3-3=3，新买3；3+3=? 只给出数字答案。", **extra}
+        st, data, ms = _post(base.rstrip("/") + "/responses", key, payload)
+        raw = json.dumps(data, ensure_ascii=False)
+        has_reason = "reasoning" in raw
+        text = ""
+        try:
+            for item in data.get("output") or []:
+                for c in item.get("content") or []:
+                    text += c.get("text", "")
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        ok = st == 200 and has_reason and ("6" in text)
+        return {"pass": ok, "ms": ms, "status": st,
+                "err": "" if ok else f"reasoning={'有' if has_reason else '无'} 答={'6' in text} " + str(data.get("_error", ""))[:120]}
+    payload = {"model": model,
+               "messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "5-2=3，还剩3；2*3-3=3，新买3；3+3=? 只给出数字答案。"}],
+               "max_tokens": 256, **extra}
+    st, data, ms = _post(base.rstrip("/") + "/chat/completions", key, payload)
+    raw = json.dumps(data, ensure_ascii=False)
+    has_reason = "reasoning" in raw
+    text = ""
+    try:
+        text = (data.get("choices") or [{}])[0].get("message", {}).get("content", "")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+    ok = st == 200 and has_reason and ("6" in text)
+    return {"pass": ok, "ms": ms, "status": st,
+            "err": "" if ok else f"reasoning={'有' if has_reason else '无'} 答={'6' in text} " + str(data.get("_error", ""))[:120]}
+
+
+def probe_vision(base: str, key: str, model: str, api: str, inputs: list):
+    """视觉：内嵌 64px 纯红 PNG 问主色。未声明 image → skip。"""
+    if "image" not in (inputs or []):
+        return {"pass": None, "ms": "-", "status": "-", "err": "skip: 未声明 image 输入"}
+    img = {"type": "image_url", "image_url": {"url": "data:image/png;base64," + red_png_b64()}}
+    if api == "openai-responses":
+        payload = {"model": model, "input": [{"role": "user", "content": [
+            {"type": "input_text", "text": "这张纯色图的主色是什么？只用一个词回答。"},
+            {"type": "input_image", "image_url": "data:image/png;base64," + red_png_b64()},
+        ]}]}
+        st, data, ms = _post(base.rstrip("/") + "/responses", key, payload)
+        text = json.dumps(data, ensure_ascii=False)
+        ok = st == 200 and ("红" in text or "red" in text.lower())
+        return {"pass": ok, "ms": ms, "status": st,
+                "err": "" if ok else str(data.get("_error", text[:200]))[:200]}
+    payload = {"model": model, "max_tokens": 32, "messages": [
+        {"role": "user", "content": [
+            {"type": "text", "text": "这张纯色图的主色是什么？只用一个词回答。"},
+            img,
+        ]}]}
+    st, data, ms = _post(base.rstrip("/") + "/chat/completions", key, payload)
+    text = ""
+    try:
+        text = (data.get("choices") or [{}])[0].get("message", {}).get("content", "")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+    ok = st == 200 and ("红" in (text or "") or "red" in (text or "").lower())
+    return {"pass": ok, "ms": ms, "status": st,
+            "err": "" if ok else (str(data.get("_error", text))[:200])}
+
+
+def run(provider_filter: str | None = None):
+    cfg = load_settings()
+    rows = []
+    for pname, p, m in iter_models(cfg):
+        if provider_filter and pname != provider_filter:
+            continue
+        mid = m.get("id", "?")
+        api = p.get("api", "openai-completions")
+        base = p.get("baseURL", "")
+        key = os.environ.get(p.get("apiKeyEnv", ""), "")
+        if not key:
+            rows.append({"provider": pname, "model": mid, "api": api,
+                         "baseline": {"pass": None, "ms": "-", "status": "-", "err": "skip: 无 key（未设 " + p.get("apiKeyEnv", "?") + "）"},
+                         "thinking": {"pass": None, "ms": "-", "status": "-", "err": "skip: 无 key"},
+                         "vision": {"pass": None, "ms": "-", "status": "-", "err": "skip: 无 key"}})
+            continue
+        compat = m.get("compat") or {}
+        efforts = m.get("reasoningEfforts")
+        inputs = m.get("input") or ["text"]
+        try:
+            b = probe_baseline(base, key, mid, api)
+        except Exception as exc:
+            b = {"pass": False, "ms": "-", "status": -1, "err": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"[:200]}
+        try:
+            t = probe_thinking(base, key, mid, api, compat, efforts)
+        except Exception as exc:
+            t = {"pass": False, "ms": "-", "status": -1, "err": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"[:200]}
+        try:
+            v = probe_vision(base, key, mid, api, inputs)
+        except Exception as exc:
+            v = {"pass": False, "ms": "-", "status": -1, "err": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"[:200]}
+        rows.append({"provider": pname, "model": mid, "api": api,
+                     "baseline": b, "thinking": t, "vision": v})
+    return rows
+
+
+def verdict(row: dict) -> str:
+    vals = [row[k].get("pass") for k in ("baseline", "thinking", "vision")]
+    if all(v is True or v is None for v in vals) and any(v is True for v in vals):
+        skips = sum(1 for v in vals if v is None)
+        return "pass" if skips == 0 else "pass-skip"
+    if any(v is False for v in vals):
+        return "fail"
+    return "skip"
+
+
+def write_reports(rows: list) -> tuple[Path, Path]:
+    REPORT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    day = _dt.date.today().isoformat()
+    jpath = REPORT_DIR / f"probe-{day}.json"
+    mpath = REPORT_DIR / f"probe-{day}.md"
+    payload = {"date": day, "total": len(rows),
+               "pass": 0, "fail": 0, "skip": 0,
+               "rows": [{**r, "verdict": verdict(r)} for r in rows]}
+    for r in payload["rows"]:
+        if r["verdict"].startswith("pass"):
+            payload["pass"] += 1
+        elif r["verdict"] == "fail":
+            payload["fail"] += 1
+        else:
+            payload["skip"] += 1
+    # 与上次对比（能力变化告警方向）
+    prev = sorted(REPORT_DIR.glob("probe-*.json"))
+    prev = [p for p in prev if p.name != jpath.name]
+    diff_lines: list[str] = []
+    if prev:
+        last = json.loads(prev[-1].read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+        by_key = {(r["provider"], r["model"]): r.get("verdict") for r in last.get("rows", [])}
+        for r in payload["rows"]:
+            old = by_key.get((r["provider"], r["model"]))
+            if old and old != r["verdict"]:
+                diff_lines.append(f'- {r["provider"]}/{r["model"]}: {old} → **{r["verdict"]}**')
+    payload["diff_from"] = prev[-1].name if prev else None
+    payload["diff"] = diff_lines
+    jpath.write_text(json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")
+
+    alert = "⚠️ 能力变化告警" if diff_lines else "无能力变化"
+    if payload["fail"]:
+        alert += f'｜{payload["fail"]} 个模型失败'
+    lines = [f"# 模型探测报告 {day}", "", f"> {alert}", "",
+             f"总 {payload['total']} · 通过 {payload['pass']} · 失败 {payload['fail']} · 全跳过 {payload['skip']}",
+             "", "| 分组 | 模型 | 基线 | 思考 | 视觉 | 结论 |",
+             "|---|---|---|---|---|---|"]
+    sym = {True: "✅", False: "❌", None: "⏭️"}
+    for r in payload["rows"]:
+        b, t, v = r["baseline"], r["thinking"], r["vision"]
+        lines.append(f"| {r['provider']} | {r['model']} | {sym[b['pass']]}{b['ms']} "
+                     f"| {sym[t['pass']]}{t['ms']} | {sym[v['pass']]}{v['ms']} | {r['verdict']} |")
+    fails = [r for r in payload["rows"] if r["verdict"] == "fail"]
+    if fails:
+        lines += ["", "## 失败明细（错误摘要，不含 key）"]
+        for r in fails:
+            for k in ("baseline", "thinking", "vision"):
+                if r[k].get("pass") is False:
+                    lines.append(f"- {r['provider']}/{r['model']} {k}: [{r[k].get('status')}] {r[k].get('err', '')[:150]}")
+    if diff_lines:
+        lines += ["", f"## 与上次对比（{payload['diff_from']}）"] + diff_lines
+    else:
+        lines += ["", "## 与上次对比", "无变化" if prev else "（首次报告，无基线）"]
+    lines += ["", "## 配置建议（需人执行，本脚本不写配置）",
+              "失败/变化的模型请对照 2026-09-06 手动结论复核后再改 settings.yaml。"]
+    mpath.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n", encoding="utf-8")
+    return jpath, mpath
+
+
+def check_readonly() -> int:
+    """自证无 settings 写入路径：源码中不得出现写模式 open/settings 写入调用。"""
+    src = Path(__file__).read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+    bad = []
+    in_checker = False
+    for i, line in enumerate(src.splitlines(), 1):
+        s = line.strip()
+        if s.startswith("def check_readonly"):
+            in_checker = True
+        elif in_checker and s.startswith("def "):
+            in_checker = False
+        if in_checker:
+            continue  # 跳过检查器自身的字面量（否则自指误报）
+        if s.startswith("#") or s.startswith('"""') or s.startswith("'''"):
+            continue
+        if "SETTINGS" in line and ("\"w\"" in line or "'w'" in line or "\"a\"" in line or "'a'" in line):
+            bad.append((i, line.strip()))
+        if "settings.yaml" in line.lower() and (".write" in line or "yaml.dump" in line or "safe_dump" in line):
+            bad.append((i, line.strip()))
+    if bad:
+        print("发现疑似写入路径：")
+        for i, l in bad:
+            print(f"  L{i}: {l}")
+        return 1
+    opens = [l.strip() for l in src.splitlines() if "open(SETTINGS" in l]
+    print("settings 打开点（应仅 mode='r'）：")
+    for l in opens:
+        print(f"  {l}")
+    print("readonly-check: PASS（无写入路径）")
+    return 0
+
+
+def main(argv: list[str]) -> int:
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="DSH 模型能力自动探测（只报告不写配置）")
+    ap.add_argument("--all", action="store_true", help="全量探测")
+    ap.add_argument("--provider", default="", help="只跑指定分组")
+    ap.add_argument("--compare", action="store_true", help="打印与上次报告的对比")
+    ap.add_argument("--check-readonly", action="store_true", help="自证无 settings 写入路径")
+    args = ap.parse_args(argv)
+    if args.check_readonly:
+        return check_readonly()
+    if not args.all and not args.provider:
+        ap.print_help()
+        return 2
+    rows = run(args.provider or None)
+    jp, mp = write_reports(rows)
+    print(f"报告：{jp}\n报告：{mp}")
+    if args.compare:
+        data = json.loads(jp.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+        print(f"对比基线：{data.get('diff_from') or '无（首次）'}")
+        for d in data.get("diff", []) or ["无变化"]:
+            print(f"  {d}")
+    fails = sum(1 for r in rows if verdict(r) == "fail")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main(sys.argv[1:]))